It’s do or die time for commodities. In classic Stage Analysis what we’re seeing right now is a retest of a Stage 1 base that formed over multiple months in 2013. Commodities then broke out of that base in early 2014 but are now retesting the base which is typical in a Stage 2 uptrend. This retest is kind of a mixed bag in my opinion, because agricultural commodities are acting extremely weak and putting in new lows. Energy is looking weak too. Precious and base metals are probably the strongest portions of the commodities complex currently. Which is interesting because they lagged at the beginning of the year and now they are leading. So the resolution of this test should help determine whether commodities are in a new bull market or going back into a Stage 1 consolidation.
