The current story in the markets is the massive run higher in the U.S. dollar. What’s interesting though is this dollar run is almost entirely due to the weak Euro and also a weak Swiss Franc and British Pound. First take a look at the dollar, it made a monster move higher today and more than likely can’t sustain this type of acceleration higher for too long of a period.
The Euro on the flip side was hammered and is approaching long term support around 127.5.
Now look at the Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar. Even though the dollar is up huge since May, the Canadian dollar and Australian dollar have kept pace with the dollar and are also higher from May. This internal strength I think bodes well for the commodity complex (since the Aussie and Loonie are commodity currencies), even though commodities themselves have pulled back since May.
Gold and silver should have gotten crushed today with this move in the dollar but instead continue to hold support.
Also another thing that is noteworthy is the strength in copper. Copper is up since May, in the face of a massive run in the dollar. If commodities were in such danger then I wouldn’t expect such strength out of copper.
So the point is that resilience in the commodities sector is showing up regardless of this massive rally in the dollar since May. Things can always change but it should be interesting to see if these things snap back higher once the dollar cools off.